Against all odds

So the chances of me actually getting a prediction correct in this space, are about the same odds that Lou Lamoriello has an active Facebook account.
(In retrospect, why I never wrote a blog in April predicting the Tampa Bay Rays would win the American League East is beyond me.)
But my track record isn't going to stop me from making another bold pre-season NHL prediction: The Ottawa Senators will finish ahead of the Montreal Canadiens in the standings this season.
Two years ago, I predicted the Atlanta Thrashers would win the Stanley Cup. They got swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Last September, I famously predicted the Pittsburgh Penguins would miss the playoffs. They went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Attention Habs Nation: Before you start throwing your delicious poutine and Celine Dion record collection at me in disgust, you should realize that I grew up as a Canadiens fan, so this has nothing to do with me hating your team.
When I was a kid, I dreamed about having a moustache like Mike McPhee one day. And I wanted to have long flowing locks that came out the back of my helmet like Russ Courtnall. (FYI - Pre-adolescent boys with my skin color look more like Pocahontas than Russ Courtnall when they are trying to grow long hair).
And while most teenage boys had racy pictures of Alyssa Milano or the female cast of 90210 over their beds, I had a poster of Patrick Roy in his full gear. (Thankfully, I'm married with two kids, or my parents would have been wondering if my poster selection had a long-term impact on my ability to have a relationship with a female).
So while this opinion might seem like it's coming from someone wearing Senators goggles, on some level this goes against my very nature. The little Craig Ludwig is crying inside of me.
But after watching the Senators last season, I can't help but think the 2008-09 Montreal Canadiens could be headed down the same path. In fact, every Canadian team that has been tabbed as the "favourite" in the past 15 years has come up short, due in large part to the media pressure placed on the teams. Think of the Vancouver teams of the early part of this decade. Or Pat Quinn's Maple Leafs. Or the Flames the year after they went to the Stanley Cup. They all did well in their first breakout season as an underdog, much like the Habs last season. But once the expectations were raised and the word "Stanley Cup" entered the equation, they all hit a plateau.
The Senators came flying into training camp last season as the undisputed favorites, having just advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals. But quicker than you could say, "Ray Emery drives a white Hummer" - the season slipped away.
The Habs were media darlings in Montreal last season - but that was because nobody expected them to do well. Like the Senators of the 2007 Stanley Cup run, they were lovable underdogs and everyone enjoyed the ride.
When the pressure and expectation levels get raised, insignificant stories get blown out of proportion. And the Montreal media is so harsh, they can make the British tabloids look as plain as a Sunday morning church news bulletin.
So get ready for a season that borders on the ridiculous in Montreal. And if the expectation level outweighs the final result, you'll know where you heard it first This year, however, they are expected to bring home the Stanley Cup in their 100th season. And the notoriously vicious Montreal media will be all over them if they don't deliver.
Case in point: Saku Koivu missed a non-mandatory team golf event earlier this month and the media was all over him in Montreal. This was for missing an optional event 17 days before the team played its World Cup Soccer Jersey first pre-season game.